How Trump Saved Social Security and Medicaid

By Prof. George Mentz JD MBA CWM ChE Chartered Economist

President Donald Trump’s immigration-enforcement policies may produce one of the largest long-term fiscal savings in American history. If approximately 3.5 million people have been deported, repatriated, or encouraged to leave the United States, the projected savings could reach between $30 trillion and $40 trillion over the next 40 years.

This is a long-term generational estimate rather than an immediate cash deposit into the U.S. Treasury. It considers not only the potential lifetime public costs associated with 3.5 million individuals, but also the future costs associated with population growth, children, dependents, and later descendants.

However, don’t forget that the 18 wars of Bush, Obama, Biden and Clinton cost Americans 40 Trillion dollars over the last 26 years which is our entire national debt.

The Cost of Government Services

Previous research estimated that government-supported services for one child through age 18 could approach $886,000:

• Healthcare and Medicaid-related costs: approximately $141,000
• Public education: approximately $456,000
• Housing assistance: approximately $255,000
• SNAP and school-food assistance: approximately $34,000

These estimated costs total $886,000 before accounting for college assistance, adult healthcare, infrastructure, law enforcement, judicial expenses, disability programs, interest on public debt, or inflation.

Rounding the potential lifetime public cost to approximately $1 million per person, the first-generation calculation for 3.5 million people is approximately $3.5 trillion. When the potential costs of future children, dependents, and descendants are included over 40 years, the projected generational savings could reasonably be estimated at between $30 trillion and $40 trillion.

For example, if each departure prevents the future public costs associated with an average family line of approximately 10 people, the calculation becomes:

3.5 million × 10 people × $1 million = $35 trillion

Thus, the central estimate is approximately $35 trillion over 40 years, with a reasonable projected range of $30 trillion to $40 trillion, depending on birth rates, inflation, benefit usage, and the actual cost of government services.

Additional Criminal-Justice Savings

The savings could be even greater when serious criminal offenders are considered. If approximately 20,000 of those removed were murderers, rapists, child-sex offenders, major drug traffickers, or other dangerous criminals who otherwise would have been imprisoned in the United States, their removal would eliminate substantial correctional expenses.

At an estimated incarceration cost of $80,000 per prisoner annually:

20,000 prisoners × $80,000 = $1.6 billion per year

Over 40 years, that would equal approximately:

$1.6 billion × 40 years = $64 billion

This does not include the costs of police investigations, criminal trials, public defenders, appeals, prison healthcare, parole supervision, or services for victims. It also cannot measure the human value of preventing murders, sexual assaults, child exploitation, drug trafficking, and other serious crimes.

Protecting Women, Children, and Minority Communities

Removing violent offenders is especially important for women and children. Every rapist, child predator, trafficker, murderer, or violent gang member removed from the country represents potential crimes that may never occur and potential victims who may never suffer lifelong trauma.

Working-class and minority neighborhoods also benefit from reduced crime, less drug trafficking, safer schools, and less competition for limited housing, medical care, and public assistance. These communities frequently bear the greatest consequences when government resources and law-enforcement systems become overwhelmed.

Immigration enforcement should therefore be understood not merely as a border issue, but also as a women’s-safety, children’s-safety, victims’rights, and civil-rights issue.

Preserving Social Security and Medicaid

Social Security and Medicaid face extraordinary demographic and financial pressures. Social Security must support a growing elderly population, while Medicaid provides essential healthcare to eligible low-income families, pregnant women, children, elderly adults, and people with disabilities.

Unauthorized immigrants generally cannot receive ordinary Social Security retirement benefits or full federally funded Medicaid coverage. Consequently, the projected $30 trillion to $40 trillion does not represent money transferred directly into the Social Security trust funds. It represents broader potential savings from reduced demands on education, emergency healthcare, housing, food assistance, infrastructure, law enforcement, corrections, and other government services.

Government resources are limited. Every dollar spent in one area is a dollar that cannot be used to strengthen Social Security, Medicaid, veterans’ benefits, disability assistance, senior care, or other essential programs.

By reducing future governmental obligations, Trump’s immigration policies help preserve the nation’s financial capacity to support elderly Americans, lawful beneficiaries, veterans, women, children, people with disabilities, and disadvantaged communities.

A Historic Economic Achievement

If the removal or voluntary departure of 3.5 million people prevents approximately $1 million in lifetime public costs per person, the direct first-generation effect could approach $3.5 trillion. When future children, dependents, and descendants are included, the potential savings could reach approximately $30 trillion to $40 trillion over 40 years.

An additional $64 billion could theoretically be saved if removing 20,000 serious offenders eliminates the need to incarcerate them in American prisons for four decades.

These are economic projections based on long-term assumptions, not amounts already recorded as federal budget savings. Nevertheless, they demonstrate the enormous fiscal consequences of immigration enforcement.

President Trump’s policies potentially reduced future public obligations, removed dangerous offenders, protected potential victims, and preserved scarce government resources for American citizens and lawful residents.

Sadly, if Biden’s 10 million new immigrants cost 475 billion a year to support, here is the cost. If $475 billion were invested every year at a 10% compounded annual return, it would grow to approximately $78.1 trillion after 30 years.

In this broader fiscal and generational sense, Donald Trump helped save Social Security and Medicaid—and strengthened America’s safety net for women, children, elderly citizens, minorities, veterans, people with disabilities, and working families.